- What is the Dwyer Score?
A full explanation can be found here.
- Does this score predict how exciting or entertaining any one event will be?
In a word, no. It’s a numeric value that measures the accumulative momentum of fighters heading into any one event.
Momentum, however, is a huge factor in combat sports promotion and the top-scoring events include some of the most memorable cards in UFC history.
- Does this score correlate to Pay-Per-View buys?
Graphs displaying how the scores correlate to PPV buys can be found here. I’ve also included correlations between the scores and the number of comments in the event’s Reddit MMA live discussion threads. I thought that would be a good measure of pre-event ‘hype’ that’s immune to the natural fluctuations of TV viewing figures.
- Why aren’t all fights considered? Shouldn’t Khabib’s streak be +26 instead of +10?
Given how the standard of regional MMA can vary, I chose not to consider results from all promotions. Only considering UFC results keeps the playing field as level as possible.
- Why do you only score UFC events? Why not Bellator?
I plan on doing this for Bellator at some stage- certainly for the big events. The only issue is, certainly for the smaller shows at least, there are several fighters coming off bouts in other promotions (especially on the prelims), meaning the entire score could sometimes end up coming from just a handful of Bellator veterans on the card.
That said, it wouldn’t be an issue for their bigger events and nowadays more and more of their prelim fighters have a history with Bellator too, so this may not be a hurdle for much longer.
- How did you collect these scores?
Manually, over the course of approximately 18 months.
Using Wikipedia, a simple script and Microsoft Excel, my brother had compiled a list of every event’s score that was relatively accurate, but not exact. These scores, even if they were slightly off, were extremely useful in determining which scores were amongst the highest and lowest scoring events of all time, but I did need to confirm the scores manually.
When scoring the events, I used Wikipedia as my main source. If a fighter on the card did not have a Wikipedia page, I would use Sherdog to find their record. I would score each event twice, double-checking to limit mistakes.
After a while (and stumbling across mistakes in both Diego Sanchez and Anthony Johnson’s Wikipedia records), I realised I should be scoring these events across multiple sources.
From there on, I scored the event initially using the combination of Wikipedia and Sherdog as before, then double-checked that score using Tapology. I also went back over all the events I’d scored previously solely using Wikipedia/Sherdog and confirmed them using Tapology.
- Why do no-contests reset a streak to 0? Shouldn’t they just be ignored all together?
In cases where, for example, an accidental illegal strike renders a fighter unable to continue, it would probably make more sense to ignore a no-contest all together. But would it be accurate to consider Jon Jones as still on a 13-fight win streak after his UFC 214 no-contest? Or to consider Daniel Cormier as still on a 4-fight win streak for that matter? Would it be accurate to consider a fighter who lost to an opponent who then tested positive for marijuana, for example, as still on an unbroken winning streak?
Given the variety of ways a no-contest can occur, I thought it was best to consider it as a ‘blocker’ that essentially resets an active streak to 0, given how the ‘NC’ in ‘W,W,W,NC’ is, in effect, ‘blocking’ the streak.
- Do you use this score in any way for MMA gambling?
- How did this start?
It began as a way for me to tell my friends how good an upcoming card was; ‘Fighter X is on a two-fight winning streak, but he’s in a tough fight against Fighter Y who has won four straight.’
I posted this thread to Reddit MMA where it received positive feedback and eventually a couple of smaller MMA media websites as well as combats sport brand Everlast contacted me and asked if I’d write for them.